A List of the Special Favors in the Debt Ceiling Bill

Last night congress passed a bill to avert a catastrophic U.S. default and reopen the government. The Bill was a lean 35 pages, but the content was not just about funding government and raising the debt limit. As is always the case in politics, the bill was filled with pork, or special favors slipped into the bill by lawmakers. I mentioned a couple of them in this post last night.  Here is a list of what was in the bill besides an increase in the debt ceiling and a funding for the federal government:

  • $450 million for Colorado flood relief
  • $600 million for fire management and suppression for California and other states
  • $2.455 billion for the Veterans Administration to cover claims from former soldiers
  • $2.918 billion for a dam project in Senate minority leader’s home state of Kentucky
  • $174,000 to Bonnie Englebart Lautenberg, widow of New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg
  • Extended authority to continue supporting African forces seeking Joseph Koney who was indicted for war crimes against Uganda.
  • Furloughed workers will receive back pay.
  • $9.248 billion for the FAA to prevent budget cuts from disrupting air traffic controls and safety inspectors
  • Congress will NOT see a pay increase to reflect cost of living adjustments during fiscal year 2014 that began on October 1.

You can read the full bill for yourself here.  

Deadlines Spur Action: Congress Strikes a Deal to Avoid Default and Fund Government

Deadlines spur action. Senate leaders on Wednesday struck an 11th hour deal to end the stalemate in Washington. (You can read the entire 35 page deal here.) The Senate voted 81-18 on Wednesday evening to a deal that would end the 16 day government shutdown and allow the government to borrow more money just 24 hours before the debt ceiling was going to be reached. The House also approved the legislation late Wednesday night.

The Senate plan funds federal agencies at current spending levels though January 15th and extends the nation’s borrowing authority through February 7th. A negotiating committee would be charged with creating plans for longer-term fiscal solutions.

I also found these nuggets picking through the bill: furloughed workers get back pay, a former Senator’s widow will get $175,000, and Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell’s home state of Kentucky will get $3 Billion for a dam.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Read said the agreement, “will provide our economy with the stability it desperately needs.” Given the uncertainty of the U.S. credit, markets have been down over the last couple weeks hurting small businesses and investors. Markets rebounded strongly today on news of the impending agreement.

Speaker Boehner signaled the party hasn’t given up on its crusade against the Affordable Care Act, which was the largest sticking point in negotiations on a budget deal. He also articulated that Republicans will continue to fight for additional spending cuts and against tax increases.

House Republicans tried and failed to pass a proposal to end the impasse on Tuesday, but were blocked by Tea Party members. The Senate deal is very similar, but has acceptance from all sides. The Senate deal reflects Republican capitulation, as almost none of the policy gains they had sought were included in the bill. The only “win” for Republicans was the setting of new procedures to verify the incomes of some people receiving government subsidies for health insurance costs. Speaker Boehner may not have won much, but he did keep his word that he would not let the nation default on its debts.

Republican Tea Party members may be patting themselves on the back for standing up for what they believe in and setting in motion the events that led to the government shutdown. They were seeking a repeal of Obamacare and an agreement for significant spending reduction measures. They repeatedly blocked bipartisan bills that would have ended the government shutdown and used the gravity of a potential default to illustrate their opposition to the Affordable Care Act.

The Tea Party certainly made the point they despise the Affordable Care Act, but was it worth it? Speaker Boehner said, We fought the good fight, we just didn’t win.” The term “good” is not appropriate to describe any part of this fight. 

How could it be? In addition to the very real effects the shutdown had an Americans detailed in this post from last week, four deaths at U.S. coal facilities are being attributed to furloughed government inspectors. What did the Tea Party win in the debate? Revised income checking procedures. Was that worth the furloughed workers, nearly a 1.5% drop in the Dow, almost 2% drop in the Nasdaq, and god knows what viruses are on the loose without the CDC working?

Those who place blame solely on the GOP are missing the larger issue. Both sides fought for what they wanted, the Democrats were just less likely to cave given their leverage. President Obama had the power to make small concessions like repealing the medical device tax that would have led to a rapid resolution of the standoff by allowing the Republicans to save face. Unfortunately Democrat leaders couldn’t close a deal with an inept foe. To be clear, both sides are culpable for the hardship this standoff put on Americans.

The issues of the debt ceiling and budget deficit are not gone. They have merely been pushed down the road until January 15th and February 7th. Without rational conversation, the leaders in government are primed to go through this same situation again in three months time using the possibility of default as a bargaining chip.

President Obama said in a statement Wednesday evening, “Now we have an opportunity to focus on a sensible budget that is response, that is fair, that helps hardworking people all across this country.” He went on to say, “We’ve got to get out of the habit of governing by crisis.” That is very true Mr. President. If you’re the leader who can effect that change, history will remember you with exceptional fondness and gratitude.

 

Twitter Chooses NYSE as Sales and Losses Rise

Twitter Chooses NYSE, Shows Increased Losses:

Rather than join the tech-heavy Nasdaq, Twitter has elected to join the NYSE for its IPO. Twitter released an updated S-1 yesterday that showed the social networking site lost even more money in the 3rd quarter of 2013. While sales doubled to $168.6M (70% of which was from mobile ad revenue), it lost $64.6M, which is up from a loss of $21.6M a year earlier. The added losses are a result of increased R&D spending.

See Also:

Twitter’s IPO Date

Twitter Unveils IPO Details

The Twitter IPO

 

House GOP Abandons Proposal, Fitch Warns of Downgrade

House GOP Abandons Its Proposal, Fitch warns of downgrade.

Yesterday I wrote about how Senate leaders were near to a deal that would end the stalemate in Washington, but the Tea Party was unlikely to support the bill. Late last night, a similar GOP backed proposal fell through in the house and Speaker Boehner had to cancel plans to bring the bill to the floor. The latest setback comes two days before the treasury says it will not be able to borrow any more money to cover the nation’s expenses. Once the nation cannot borrow any additional money starting on Thursday October 17th, the $30B left on hand will cover the U.S. for a little over a week leading to a default shortly thereafter.

With the failure of the House bill, there is some hope for a similar bill being worked on in the Senate that would need to be passed before Thursday’s deadline. The success of this bill is dependent on every senator agreeing since they would have to unanimously agree to expedited approval procedures. The bills would extend the nation’s borrowing capabilities and fund government for a short time giving congress an opportunity to develop a long term solution. The proposals would likely pass, if not for Tea Party Republicans who are still pressing to cut the Affordable Care Act and want drastic measures to reduce the deficit.

Yesterday afternoon, Fitch Ratings warned it could downgrade the nation’s top credit rating in the wake of a continued debate in Washington. This reflects the growing tension on Wall Street over the possibility of a default. As a result, the Dow fell .87% and traders stated they’re, “being held hostage by the headlines.”

 

BlackBerry takes out ads to reassure customers

BlackBerry seeks to reassure customers:

Troubled smartphone retailer BlackBerry took out full-page ads in major newspapers yesterday to soothe worried customers. They asserted that customers could continue to count on BlackBerry since they have substantial cash on hand and a debt free balance sheet, but their actions speak louder than their words. The retailer has cut smartphone shipments amidst plunging sales and has cut 40% of its workforce. BlackBerry’s best hopes are the swirling merger and acquisition rumors that may dismantle the company. Taking out a full page add smells of desperation, and the decision to do it in print instead of online raised eyebrows.

Also read:

BlackBerry Open to Breakup

A New Buyer For BlackBerry

Things Are Still Getting Worse For BlackBerry

Deal In Place For BlackBerry To Be Sold For $4.7B

 

Amazon positions itself inside supplier warehouses

Amazon takes up space in Proctor and Gamble warehouses:

Amazon has stationed workers in several Proctor and Gamble warehouses where they will be able to ship consumer staples directly to consumers. This program is called Vendor Flex, and Amazon is seeking to also collaborate with Kimberly Clark to broaden its offerings within the program. Vendor Flex allows Amazon to significantly cut costs and improve speed of delivery, which may eventually catalyze its same day delivery and online grocery shopping business. This will allow the companies Amazon partners with like Proctor and Gamble and Kimberly Clark to boost online sales.

 

Apple hires Burberry chief to lead retail and online operations

Apple hires Burberry chief to lead retail and online operations

Apple has named Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts as their Senior VP of Retail and Online Stores. Ahrendts spent seven years leading the British Fashion house, tripling their sales and quadrupling their share price. Apple CEO Tim Cook as been in charge of the retail division since John Browett was fired a year ago. 

Senate Leaders Near Deal

Senate leaders near deal

Senate leaders are close to a deal that would extend the U.S.’s borrowing capability to February 7, fund the government until January 15, and force Washington to hold budget talks by December 13th. Even though this deal would fend off a potential default, end the 15 day government shutdown, and change the immediate deadlines in favor of three new ones over the next four months, Tea Party republicans are expected to oppose the deal. This deal is not a final solution, rather an extension to give congress time to negotiate. At this point, kicking the can down the road is progress because it takes us away from the edge of financial collapse.

 

Using Game Theory To Resolve The Stalemate in Washington

Using Game Theory to Resolve the Stalemate in Washington:

Game Theory pertains to the strategies people use during every day interactions with others. It analyzes the consequences of those strategies, exposes the traps, and suggests ways to avoid them. Right now, congress is debating over funding government and raising the debt ceiling. Essentially we have a real life interpretation of the Prisoner’s Dilemma.

In the Prisoner’s Dilemma, Two members of a criminal gang are arrested and imprisoned. Each prisoner is in solitary confinement without a way to communicate. The police admit they don’t have enough evidence to convict the pair on the principal change, so they plan to sentence both to a year in prison on a lesser charge. The prisoners are offered a plea deal. If both stay quiet, each serves 2 years in prison. If one confesses and the other denies, the one who confesses goes free and the other goes to jail for 3 years. If both confess, they both serve 1 year in prison. Betraying your partner by confessing rewards more than cooperating with the police, so all purely rational self-interested prisoners confess and take the lesser sentence.

For the sake of argument, let’s say we have House Speaker John Boehner on one side and President Obama on the other. So we have them on opposing sides and the battlefield of public opinion in the middle. What is on the line in this situation is the possibility of the United States defaulting on its loans. By defaulting on the loans, everyone in the world, without hyperbole, loses. It would likely cause a global financial collapse that would make 2008 blush.

Boehner doesn't want to pass a clean continuing resolution or debt ceiling increase without significant budget cuts and Obama doesn't want to defund The Affordable Care Act or sign a non-clean debt ceiling increase. Economists and the general public are less concerned about how a deal gets done as long as it gets done.

What we have is tantamount to the Cuban missile crisis or two cars driving full speed at each other playing chicken. Swerving and giving in to the others demands is worse than not swerving, unless neither swerves, because then we’re all dead.

We do have an extra player in this game though, and that is the public. If Obama can shift public opinion so they blame Boehner and the republicans, he may be willing to allow a financial collapse. Given the tide of public opinion at the present moment, Boehner doesn’t even appear to have that option.

If Republicans continue fighting right up to the debt limit, they will have to answer to voters for the economic mayhem a default would cause. Obama on the other hand doesn’t have to worry about reelection. For Obama to back down and gut Obamacare, he would have sacrificed his greatest achievement and confirm his lame duck status. He’s not likely to give in.

Using this logic, (which I’m unsure we can consider Congress logical) Republicans should back down quickly and just take when they can get. Obama should offer republicans some minor concessions like giving into the keystone pipeline, cutting the medical equipment tax, or agreeing to revenue neutral budget negotiations. A positive resolution from this situation could have history reflecting very positively on President Obama and less critically on Republicans, which would be a win for both of them.

This type of rational solution seems so simple in Theory, but Theory hardly ever survives its first brush with reality. We've also come to learn that rationality is something that may be a thing of the past in Washington. 

If Congress Can't Reach A Deal, it wouldn't be the first U.S. Default

 If Congress can’t reach a deal, it wouldn’t be the first U.S. Default

America has briefly not been able to pay its bills on two occasions. The first time was when the White House and Capital were burned during the war of 1812. The second time was in 1979 when a back-office glitch ended up costing taxpayers billions of dollars. That was also blamed on bickering lawmakers who couldn’t agree on a backlog of paperwork. In 1979, it was lawmakers determined to attach a strong balanced budget amendment to the bill the caused the shutdown. They finally relented, the day before Social Security checks were expected to start bouncing.

Congress is still locked in a heated debate that could torch that economy, but at least Washington isn’t literally on fire.