Six Things You Need To Know About Janet Yellen:

Six things you need to know about Janet Yellen:

After Lawrence Summers withdrew from contention to be the next Fed Chairman, it became likely that current vice chairman Janet Yellen will get the job (that story is detailed here). Here are the six things you need to know about the likely successor to Ben Bernake.

1.     She has the pedigree for the job. With an undergrad degree in economics from Brown, a PhD from Yale, tenure as a professor at Harvard and Berkeley, time as an advisor to Clinton while he was president, a post as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, a current job in the Fed’s #2 position as vice-chair, she is certainly qualified.

2.     She has an independent streak. I view this positively as she is likely to be more data driven and make decisions based on the best available information rather than what may be popular.

3.     Her forecasting ability is renowned. Yellen has diverged from people who suggested the economy would be just fine. She also foresaw the housing bubble and the subprime mortgage crisis. She is one of a handful of people to do that accurately and without the benefit of hindsight.

4.     She cares about unemployment. Her academic expertise is in unemployment. She asserts that the issue isn’t just about statistics to her, and that the toll of unemployment on the mental and physical health of people searching for work is crushing. I’m optimistic that she’ll work to support jobs desirable to recent college grads and the middle class.

5.     She is a good manager. She is described as rational, judicious, and prepared. She seems to get along well with others and is a good collaborator. Her strength is being able to see many sides of an argument and form a group consensus. She avoids micromanaging. In short, she sounds like the ideal boss.

6.     She is the most qualified. That is hard to dispute. She would also break the glass ceiling in the fed, becoming the fist woman to head it. The next head of the Fed will be responsible for shaping the $17 Trillion U.S. economy and guiding the country at a time when disparity between social classes is the widest it has been since the great depression.

If she is confirmed, this will be a very exciting and positive movement for our country.

How to Handle a Verbal Altercation at Work

How to Handle a Verbal Altercation at Work:

In my decade as part of the workforce, I have never seen a verbal altercation in the workplace; with one exception. My first job was at the department of public works and one of the many interesting stories I got from my time there was the occasion when two coworkers got into a shouting match. You’d expect it to be over work ethic, department policies, or scheduling like who was in line for overtime, but it wasn’t. The two used to be best friends, but a decade previous to the confrontation, one married the other’s sister. The one guy never forgave the other and there was always tension. Personally, I never understood why the one guy was so upset his friend married his sister, but I felt awkward being present.

A recent study showed 30% of executives and employees argue with a co-worker at least once a month, with a small percentage of those becoming emotional shouting matches.

When a big fight takes place in Corporate America, it is not unusual for the impact to be office wide. In the open office configuration where closed doors are often a rarity, these confrontations between coworkers are typically a public event. Rather than getting popcorn ready and taking a ringside seat, it can be very awkward for onlookers.

Simply witnessing workplace incivility (described in this blog post) is detrimental to observer’s performance on both routine and creative tasks because it drains cognitive resources (some suggestions on how to replenish them here) and interferes with memory. If conflict occurs in the presence of a customer, there is only a 20% chance a customer will subsequently buy something. Those are significant negative effects on productivity and sales.

If a conflict occurs in the workplace, try to keep it private. Your conflict should not affect others on your work team or in your department. Furthermore, if someone else is having an altercation and you have the opportunity to remove them from public view, do so with alacrity. After the conflict has been resolved, it is important to talk about the conflict to resolve any lingering animosity. This communication is important to take place within the entire team so everyone knows there is a strong working relationship. Unresolved tension can have residual effects on the entire team.  At a time where lean staffing is commonplace and productivity is of the utmost importance, conflict resolution is becoming a valuable skill.

One For the Money, Two for the Show: The Economic Impact of Super Bowl XLVII in NYC

The Economic Impact of Super Bowl XLVII in New York City:

Super Bowl XLVIII is being held in New York City next year. This is surprising for many reasons, but none more so than the fact the super bowl is usually held in a city that boasts a temperate climate in February. Just taking a quick look back: In 2013 it was held in New Orleans Louisiana where the Ravens defeated the 49ers, in 2012 I was in attendance at Lucas Oil stadium in Indianapolis Indiana as my beloved Patriots were defeated by the evil New York Giants, in 2011 the Packers defeated the Steelers in Arlington Texas, in 2010 the Saints defeated the Colts in Miami Florida. Only once in the last 20 years has the Super Bowl been played in a cold weather city (Detroit in 2006 when the Steelers beat the Seahawks).

New York is the financial capital of the world, and the money associated the most watched event each year is bound to reach unprecedented levels in this setting. The NFL estimates that the Super Bowl produces about $400 million for the local economy. Academic research believes that number to be inflated. Regardless of what the mean is, this year may exceed it. Suites for the Super Bowl will cost record setting prices. The most expensive of which, is currently listed for almost $1 Million. That Suite better come with a helipad to get in and out of the stadium conveniently. 

The NFL is expected to make millions on the big game, and their profits are pretty easy to derive or at least estimate. The economic impact the Super Bowl will have on New York is less simple to predict or calculate after the fact. The direct economic impact of the Super Bowl will be all the money spent by the attendees and visitors who would otherwise not be there. The indirect economic impact is how the vendors and establishments who benefited from the direct impact spend their money.

The game is an economic boost to the local market, which is usually awarded to a city with appealing weather that just built a new stadium. While the projection of $550M being injected into the New York economy seems to be a little high, having the game in the city at the heart of finance should lead to a little extra money being thrown around along with a few footballs.

The Modern Businessman Looks at Some Reviews and Suggestions For IOS 7

Positive first reviews for iOS 7.

Reviewers have generally been pleased with the new version of Apple’s mobile operating system. I updated my phone while I was writing this first part of this post today, and decided to wait on publishing it until I used it for a few hours. People seem to be pleased with the new user interface and capability. The interface has been described as “utilitarian”, which I tend to agree with. It is sharp and austere. But, it seems to me so far less aesthetically pleasing and intuitive to maneuver. The latter complaint may be a result of having the previous functions so firmly engrained and having to relearn commands.

The swipe commands are neat. A swipe upward from the bottom of the screen will access what is being called the “Control Center”. The Control Center is where the settings you’re most likely to modify on a regular basis reside. It includes brightness, Volume, Bluetooth, WiFi, Airplane Mode, Play/Pause Music, Calculator, Camera, and a new feature, Flashlight. A swipe from the left margin brings you back to the previous screen you were on. The “Today Screen” accessed by swiping down from the top of the phone is nice and just reminded me I have an event this evening at 6:00pm that I had completely forgotten about.  It shows birthdays, calendar, current stock prices, and the weather. Apple is up 2.13% so far today.

The camera has also been improved and features swipe functions to change between video, slow-motion video, still photos, square photos with filters, and panorama settings. Photos are now organized into “Moments” so that pictures are grouped into clusters by year, month, occasion, etc. This will take some getting used to for me.  iTunes Radio comes installed in the native music app. It’s essentially an imitation of Pandora or Spotify.

There are several features that run in the background which drain the battery faster. One of them is the ability to have applications automatically update as they become available. To help preserve the battery, be sure to close applications when they are not in use. Do this by double tapping the home button, and swiping up on whichever application you'd like to close. 

Maps still seems to be subpar, but hey its getting better. It can now offer walking directions. Make sure you have Google Maps installed.

The best part of iOS 7 may be the theft prevention and security features. Historically, you could track, lock, wipe, and send messages to a lost or stolen iPhone in hopes of recovering it. The newly added Activation Lock ties your iPhone to your iCloud account and makes the phone worthless to a thief without your Apple ID password. Even if a thief tried to jailbreak, erase, or force-reinstall the operation system, he will need your Apple ID Password to prep it for resale.

I like the contacts faces in chats; it makes group messaging a little more fun.  

Siri got significantly upgraded so you can now have him or her (you can choose the voice) perform operations on your phone. Siri is able to recognize and execute commands like, “Open Bluetooth Settings” or “Open WiFi Settings”. That being said, I’ve never used Siri or voice commands, but perhaps that will change as both have reportedly been vastly improved.

In addition to the display not being my favorite so far, there are a couple things I miss or haven’t figured out yet. Double tapping the home button on a locked iPhone use to bring up basic controls for whatever audio was currently or most recently playing. I haven’t been able to access that capability in iOS 7. The same controls were formerly available by double tapping the home screen and swiping left, but they have been moved to the Control Center, which is accessed by swiping upwards from the bottom of the screen.

The folders that neatly hold and group apps now have multiple screens within them. Rather than having all the icons appear in one screen expanded across the display, now any folder with more than nine icons requires you to swipe left to see more.

Perhaps I’ll come to love and appreciate iOS 7 as much as the previous versions, but even though I’ve only spent 10 hours with it or so, this is the first time I haven’t loved an Apple innovation immediately. Is it just me, or is Apple starting to lose its touch?

In the mean time, here is a list of iOS 7’s Biggest Annoyances and How to Fix Them.

Also check out the nine things that iPhone and iPad users need to know about iOS 7. 

Take-Two's "Grand Theft Auto" Sets $800 Million Record:

 Take-Two’s ‘Grand Theft Auto’ Sets $800 Million Record:

Global retail sales of the video game Grand Theft Auto V toped $800 Million in the game’s first 24 hours of availability. The previous record of $500 million was set last year by Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty: Black Ops 2. Shares of Take-Two closed up 1.2% yesterday to finish at $17.20 and the stock has improved by 12% since July. The game costs $60 and has been given a “Mature” rating meaning it can only be purchased by games older than 17.

The 16 year old GTA franchise has won numerous awards over the years and been the controversial spark for research into the effects of violent video games.  The research suggests that playing violent video games increases aggressive behavior in children and young adults. It also increases physiological arousal, stress, and aggressive thoughts and feelings. Playing violent videogames also has been shown to decrease prosocial behavior. Prosocial behaviors are actions intended to help or benefit another person or society. It is characterized by empathy, concern, thoughtfulness, selflessness, and morality. Prosocial behavior at work leads to increased reward allocation like promotions, bonuses, and raises. It also leads to the person being liked more and more likely to be rated as performing superior customer service. Now does this research indicate that if someone plays violent videogames they will turn into a sociopath? Absolutely not. This research just shows that playing violent videogames may increase the likelihood of these effects. The good news for Take-Two is that this research doesn’t seem to be stunting the sale of the fifth edition in this award winning franchise. 

The Fed Won't Taper: The Pundits Got It Wrong

Everyone got it Wrong, the Fed Won’t Taper:

The news yesterday that the Federal Reserve will not reduce its $85 Billion/month bond-buying program makes my post yesterday on What Happens if The Fed Doesn’t Taper (which includes a primer on the bond buying program called Quantitative Easing) even more relevant. It also vindicates Economist Justin Wolfers who may have been the only one who believed the Fed wouldn’t taper. He called it on 9/13 after downward revisions of economic growth and jobs data and again before the announcement yesterday. He is great to follow on Twitter.

The decision to continue the QE at current levels, was a result of data that indicated the poor state of the economic recovery. To build on my metaphor from yesterday, the economy is not ready to function without its training wheels yet. The Fed lowered their estimate for 2013 GDP Growth to predict that GDP may improve 2% - 2.3% compared to the 2.3%-2.6% it predicted in June. It also lowered growth projection for 2014 to 3% down from almost 3.5%.

Just as was mentioned yesterday in What Happens if The Fed Doesn’t Taper, the stock market skyrocketed and the S&P 500 went up over 1%. Yesterday was a good day to be highly leveraged in the markets. Bad long-term projections led to big short term gains for investors yesterday. The Fed did however leave the door open that a taper could start at some point in October. QE won’t last forever so enjoy the ride while it does.

Some Interesting Data From RateMyProfessor.com:

Rate My Professor Released Some Interesting Data Today:

The website that is renowned for providing performance ratings of professors as given by their students released their annual top 25 list. These are the 25 best professors across the country. I haven’t taught in two years, but I still credit my absence from the list as being a result of two other Akron professors, Kevin Kreider and Susan Young, deservedly making it and not wanting to crowd the list with too many from one school. Or it could be the fact that during my two years teaching I only accumulated six ratings and I haven't taught in two years.  

I was also interested to see the ranking of the most physically attractive professors by major. Psychology checks in at number 10 on the 36 major list. The top five were: Languages, Law, Religion, Criminal Justice, and Political Science. The bottom five: Accounting, Women’s Studies, Engineering, Computer Science, and Chemistry. At least students in four of the bottom five will have high paying jobs eventually albeit no good looking professors to entice them to attend class before then.

Previous research (studies here and here) has showed that students rate physically attractive professors as also being more effective at their jobs. This is also true of performance evaluations at other jobs and just about every other desirable work outcome too. Being born good looking has to be one of the greatest advantages a person has no control over. 

If you’re a student, do you use Ratemyprofessor.com? If you’re an instructor, do you put any stock in the ratings? Leave your responses in the comments section below.

The Effects of Family Dinners on Mental and Physical Health

The effects of a family dinner:

Families that typically have a 20 minute dinner together have children who get better grades, are more likely to have a healthy body weight, have strong relationships with their parents, and have better mental health overall. Over the past four years, families have been tending to eat faster and the duration of the family dinner is decreasing. In 2009 only 26% of families had dinners that lasted under 22 minutes and that number is now 32%. As far as time spent at dinner goes, as little as an additional 3.5 minutes can make a substantive difference in the health of children as increasing family dinner time from 17 minutes to 20 minutes leads to a decrease in obesity.

It appears these beneficial effects are largely a result of the communication that takes place during dinner. Parents are able to spend more time understanding their children and the activities they are engaging in and able to help them to make good decisions. No matter how many family dinners you currently have a week, adding one more will decrease the potential for substance abuse and criminal behavior in the children by 15%. Each added dinner has a unique and significant effect on the children’s mental health, so whether you currently have 0 or six family dinners a week, try adding one more.

During dinner, some families take turns talking about the highs and lows of each person’s  day. Others talk about things that are going on in the world. One suggestion to increase the popularity of family dinners is to make it a time of good communication.  Any tense topics or behavioral issues that need to be addressed should be avoided at the dinner table. Dinner time should be a time out from stress and discord so that everyone wants to participate in family dinner.

Lastly, serving good food helps bring the family to the table. In an effort to get kids to try new food, try a unique or elegant presentation of food items. Oftentimes people judge a preference or aversion to a food by the way it looks without even tasting it. So having different visually appealing courses at dinner can help crack even picky eaters.

So if you’re not having family dinners does this mean you’re somehow doomed? Certainly not. Since the benefits of family dinners primarily come from the communication that dinner facilitates, if your family takes time to communicate in other ways, you’ll be just fine. Growing up, my family was very close and effective communicators, yet we seldom had family dinners. This system worked for us. The key takeaway from this article is that family communication is important for physical and mental health and family dinners are one way to facilitate that. 

Economic recovery or not, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer:

Economic recovery or not, the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer:

Not so long ago I made the argument that the numbers showing that the economic recovery only benefited the rich were exaggerated and out of context. I argued that since the wealthiest people in the country kept their money in the stock market when it crashed, they made it all back and then some during the recovery while the middle class pulled out of the market and lost most of what they had invested and didn't benefit from the rebound. You can see that tweet here. My good friend and economist Rob Mahrt was quick to counter with the data and charts in this article and summed them up concisely in this tweet to help me understand why I was wrong. The rich really did get richer during the economic recovery even controlling for capital gains, which is the money made from investments. What is worse, the poor got poorer too. The number of Americans living in poverty climbed to 46.5 million last year, but the poverty rate remained at 15%. The poverty threshold is $23,492 for a family of four. That works out to the entire family spending a total (including housing, food, insurance, etc) of $66 dollars a day or about $16 per person. That is extremely low in my eyes. The only positive takeaway from this report was that slightly more people have health insurance. We have a long way to go. 

Walgreens to Give Workers Payments to Buy Health Plans:

Walgreens to Give Workers Payments to Buy Health Plans:

Walgreens is the largest major employer to overhaul its health program, as the company will give employees money to buy their own coverage on an exchange. They cite rising healthcare costs and expenses related to complying with the new healthcare laws as the reason for the change. It appears that IBM and Time Warner will also be moving from company administered programs to funding exchanges as well.